Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using deep learning and data assimilation in support of management decisions

Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.     

土地利用变化对流域水文过程时空分异的影响 ——以赣江流域为例

土地利用变化引起的水文分量时空变化对认识流域产汇流过程，优化流域土地利用结构和水资源规划具有重要意义。基于SWAT模型，本研究以赣江流域为例，结合1980、2000、2015年3期土地利用数据从水文响应单元的角度，系统分析了单纯土地利用变化对流域产流、蒸发、入渗以及径流等主要水文过程时空分布的影响。结果表明：1980~2015年间，流域内的土地利用变化主要表现为耕地和林地的减少，城乡建设用地的增加；林地的减少和城乡建设用地的增加是产流增加，蒸发和入渗减少的主要原因；总体上，土地利用变化对局部地区水文过程影响较大，但因土地利用类型之间的相互转化和其影响的叠加，流域尺度上的综合水文效应明显降低；土地利用变化导致整个赣江流域平均径流量增加了2.33×108m3，相比较近年来赣江径流的减小幅度其影响十分有限。近年来，赣江入湖径流量的下降主要是由气候变化和其他人类活动作用特别是流域工农业用水的大幅增长所致。流域水文过程模拟应充分考虑土地利用变化水文效应的时空分异，注重天然和社会水循环的耦合，才能更为真实的反映流域水文过程，更好的为流域土地利用结构优化和水资源的高效管理提供科学依据。     

Preparation and Characterization of Collagens from the Skin of Northern Snakehead (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Channa argus)</Emphasis>

Channa argus, a type of snakehead fish native to China, is a popular food fish in certain Asian countries but is a known destructive invasive species in the US. In this study, the two collagens, i.e. acid-soluble collagen (ASC) and pepsin-solubilized collagen (PSC), were obtained from C. argus skin. The yield of ASC was 28.0% and that of PSC was 16.8% on the dry bases. The collagens were identified as the collagen of type I by SDS–PAGE patterns. The Tds were approximately 27.0?°C. Similar ultraviolet spectra of both collagens were observed. Fourier Transform infrared spectra indicated PSC structure had a little change due to the loss of terminal domains by pepsin digestion. The results of XRD proved that the two collagens retained their helical structures. The results suggest that the collagens isolated from C. argus can potentially be alternative sources of vertebrate collagens for use in the food and other industries.     

全氟辛烷磺酸盐(PFOS)对半滑舌鳎(Cynoglossus semilaevis)免疫相关基因表达的影响

为了解全氟辛烷磺酸盐(perfluorooctane sulfonate, PFOS)暴露对半滑舌鳎(Cynoglossus semilaevis)免疫功能的影响,在实验室条件下,运用RT-PCR方法分析了PFOS暴露对半滑舌鳎热休克蛋白hsp70、hsp90、C型凝集素(c-type lectin)和细胞色素c氧化酶(cytochrome c oxidase, cox)等4种免疫相关基因表达水平的影响。实验测定了上述4种基因在半滑舌鳎肝、鳃、肠及肌肉4种不同组织中随时间(0、24 h、48 h、96 h和7 d)的表达变化情况。结果表明,在4种组织中,hsp70基因的表达与对照相比为上调,其中,肝组织hsp70基因的表达量显著高于其他各组织,且表达高峰值的出现也早于其他各组织;hsp90基因在肝和鳃组织中表达量随时间不同而波动,在肠组织中表达上调,在肌肉中表达显著下调;c-type lectin基因表达量与对照组相比表达显著下调或无明显差异;cox基因在肝组织和肠组织中表达下调,在鳃和肌肉中表达上调。上述研究结果表明,PFOS能引起免疫相关基因的表达变化,对半滑舌鳎具有潜在的免疫毒性。肝组织中各免疫基因对PFOS胁迫的响应高于其他组织。本研究可为阐明全氟辛烷磺酸盐对半滑舌鳎的免疫毒性提供基础数据。     

生物基质对煤渣改良地下渗滤系统脱氮效果的影响

地下渗滤系统(SWIS)对硝化、反硝化过程调控不灵活,导致其对氮的去除效果不够理想。组建了两套SWIS装置(1#装置:65～80cm段没有生物基质;2~#装置:65～80cm段添加生物基质),对沿程氮素、硝化和反硝化作用强度及氮还原酶活性进行分析。结果表明,两套装置均表现为硝化反应主要发生在20～60cm段,反硝化反应主要发生在60～80cm段。2~#装置的反硝化作用明显强于1#装置,因此其TN去除率高于1~#装置。硝化作用强度随深度增加而递减,反硝化作用强度随深度增加而递增。硝酸盐还原酶(NAR)活性随深度的增加而逐渐减弱,亚硝酸盐还原酶(NIR)活性随深度的增加先减弱后又增强。主要原因是2~#装置中添加了干化污泥作为生物基质,为反硝化作用补充了碳源,增强了脱氮能力。     

PEMFC电堆简易模拟器

当针对PEMFC电堆的能量转换及热特性,立足于PEMFC测试应用。采用电力电子技术实现动态电能及膜片电压生成;跟随物料平衡算法,可实时调节水、温及信号参量拟合,简述了一种PEMFC电堆简易模拟器实现。     

《环境监测 分析方法标准制修订技术导则》(HJ 168—2010)对土壤环境监测标准制修订适用性探讨

针对土壤环境监测的复杂性和特殊性,从空白试验、检出限、方法验证、质量控制和标准文本等方面,指出了《环境监测分析方法标准制修订技术导则》《HJ 168—2010》对土壤环境监测标准制修订工作的适用性和执行中存在的问题。提出,为保证土壤标准制修订质量和标准执行质量,应研究适宜土壤监测方法标准的质量控制指标体系和评价体系,及时修订《HJ 168—2010》或发布补充要求;对现有土壤监测方法标准进行技术评估,加强对于土壤标准制修订工作的指导和监管。     

Effects of Topographical Heterogeneity and Dispersal Limitation on Species Turnover in a Temperate Mountane Ecosystem: a Case Study in the Henan Province,China

Species turnover patterns can be inconsistent due to differences in the dispersal ability of different growth forms. Here, species of trees, shrubs, herbs, and bryophytes in the Xiaoqinling National Nature Reserve in China were analyzed to determine patterns of species turnover along an elevation and spatial gradient. Variance partitioning was used to assess the relative contribution of topographic heterogeneity and dispersal limitation to species turnover. Our results suggest that the effect of dispersal limitation is more important than topographic heterogeneity on species turnover in temperate mountane ecosystems in the study area. Dispersal limitation has a greater effect on trees species turnover than on shrubs, herbs or bryophytes species turnover.     

虚拟耕地资源与农业经济增长：作用机理及贡献份额研

虚拟耕地资源被广泛认为是缓解国内耕地资源压力和促进农业经济增长的重要举措之一。在论证虚拟耕地资源贸易对农业经济增长作用机理分析的基础上，计算1996~2018年中国主要农产品虚拟耕地资源贸易量，并对虚拟耕地资源对农业经济增长中的贡献份额进行实证分析，为调整对外贸易战略及优化耕地资源策略提供参考。结果表明：虚拟耕地资源可以在更大范围内实现耕地资源的优化配置；主要农产品贸易的巨大逆差决定了中国是虚拟耕地资源净进口大国，其中，油料是虚拟耕地资源净进口量最大的品种；虚拟耕地资源对农业经济增长的贡献率为0.26%，观点得到了佐证。同时，还提出了要试点实施虚拟耕地资源，全力以赴做好贸易政策调整战略；充分利用国内外“两种资源、两个市场”，倒逼主要农产品进行结构调整；努力构建虚拟耕地资源管理新模式，推动农业“走出去”与市场多元化结合等政策建议。